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Storm Warning
The 2nd Half 2026 Market Outlook
Six risk systems are converging on this market at once. Come and see how to read them, and how to position with discipline instead of fear. Fill in the form for instant access to the full replay.
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The Event Snapshot
The first half of 2026 handed the S&P 500 a solid +9.6%, and it was not easy money. A war, an oil spike and a stubborn inflation impulse fought a market drunk on AI enthusiasm the whole way up.
The second half looks harder. Record valuations. A hawkish new Fed chair. The midterm-year pattern. Surging bond yields. A second oil-driven inflation impulse. Shortages creeping in from a closed Strait. And a market finally questioning the AI spending spree.
And the market is finally growing sceptical of endless AI capex from the hyperscalers, the one story holding it all up.
In this free session, three-decade markets veteran Simon Ree walks through every one of these pressure systems, and the disciplined process that returned +42.33% through a tricky first half.
What’s Brewing In H2
Any one of these is manageable. All six at once is a storm system.
Record valuations
A composite of CAPE, trailing and forward P/E, price-to-book and EV/EBITDA puts equities at or near all-time highs. Current valuation equals future gravity.
A new, hawkish Fed chair
Almost every new Fed chair in the past 90 years has faced an equity drawdown inside their first nine months. Warsh’s test looks due.
The midterm-year pattern
Since 1974, every midterm election year has delivered an S&P drawdown, averaging somewhere near 21% peak to trough.
Surging bond yields
Higher yields compete with stocks, reprice debt, and crush the economics of every future promise, from robotaxis to half-built data centres.
A second inflation impulse
Oil is climbing again, threatening to reignite inflation just as the market declared the war won.
Shortages on the horizon
With the Strait closed, a supply squeeze is building into year end: fertiliser, petrochemicals, ethane, helium, and the rare-earth stack renegotiated with China.
In This Free Session You’ll Walk Away With
The full 2nd Half 2026 Risk Map
What’s real, what’s noise, and where the genuine asymmetry sits.
How to position in a high risk market
Patience, selectivity, and defined-risk asymmetry while everyone else is reacting.
The process behind a +42.33% first half
And the risk-adjusted numbers (Sharpe 2.45, Sortino 6.12, max drawdown under 10%) that say it wasn’t luck.
Why you’re a risk manager first and a trader second
And how that one shift changes your results.
Real People. Real Results.
Atul TiwariHong KongHey Simon, hope you are doing well! I am so happy to share my NLV update for the year. I am finishing the year with over 700% return. I can't thank you enough. I will be writing a small LinkedIn post recommending your teachings and my learnings from the year. It has been a very humbling experience and a very satisfying experience personally for me. I learned amazing things from you this year and I hope the future has the same in store for us. Thanks again 🙂
Jason VitzUSAAs I approach retirement, I have been actively seeking ideas and education on the topic. I was initially under the impression that a large sum of money was required to retire comfortably. However, reading Simon's book, Tao of Trading, completely changed my perspective. The concept of realizing 5% or more each month from trading is life changing. This new understanding led me to enroll in the Tao of Trading Options Academy Accelerate and Mastery Programs. I'm delighted to share that the education, insights, and ideas provided have resulted in just under a 20% gain in six weeks, all while following the recommendation to keep 50% cash.
Sherman YuHong KongSimon Ree is my enlightening mentor in Options Academy. I am very honoured to be one of his inaugural students in the Academy. In this wonderful 6 weeks journey, Simon has shared many of his exceptional insights and practical tips on options trading. It's actually the correct mindset as a trader and the risk management skillsets which I believe are the most valuable treasure Simon has uncovered for us. I'm glad that one of my recent options trade in NFLX has brought me a 250% profit. Can't imagine how powerful it could be!
About Simon Ree
Founder of Tao of Trading, Educator and Author of the Amazon bestseller The Tao of Trading
Simon Ree has been a professional in the financial markets since 1992, beginning his career as a futures broker before moving into senior roles at Goldman Sachs and Citibank. At Goldman Sachs, he founded and led the Markets Desk in Sydney, later holding senior positions at Citibank in Singapore. With over 30 years of experience in the U.S. stock market, Simon developed deep expertise in stocks, options trading, and risk management strategies.
That front-line experience matters. Simon didn’t learn to trade from a textbook. He honed his craft in real markets, through every conceivable condition: bull runs, crashes, and everything in between. By the time he left the corporate world in 2017, he had spent 25 years developing and refining strategies that actually work.
Today, Simon trades those same strategies full-time, and teaches them. That distinction is important. Unlike many trading educators, he has skin in the game. What he teaches in the classroom is what he executes in his own account, every week.
Simon is also the author of the Amazon best-seller The Tao of Trading: How to Build Abundant Wealth in Any Market Condition, where he dismantles Wall Street myths and lays out a straightforward path to generating consistent, repeatable income from the U.S. stock market.
Watch The 2nd Half 2026 Market Outlook
The full session, including the live Q&A, yours to watch whenever it suits you.
- Full 90 minute replay
- The complete H2 risk map
- Watch on any device
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These Are The Questions We Receive Most Often
If you have a question about the session that is not answered below, please contact our helpdesk.
Is it really free?
Yes. The session is completely free. If you’d like to go further afterwards, Simon shows you how to join Options Academy Elevate, but there is no obligation, and the session stands on its own.
When was the session held?
Thursday 30 July 2026, 8pm Singapore, 1pm London, 8am New York. It was held online via Zoom, and the full replay is now available on this page.
How long is it?
Around 90 minutes, including the live Q&A.
How do I get the replay?
Fill in the form on this page and the replay is sent straight to your inbox. Live attendees got the Q&A, which is where most of the value sits, and it is all in the recording.
Do I need trading experience?
No. Everything is explained in plain English. Newer and experienced traders both walk away with something they can use.
Is this financial advice?
No. This is an educational session. Nothing presented is personalised financial advice, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
What should I have with me?
Curiosity, an open mind, a notebook, and your questions.